Three Plans For Reconstruction Essay -- essays research papers

Analysis of the Three Plans for Reconstruction The American Civil War, lasting from 1861-1865, was the most severe military conflict the country had seen; it involved the United States of America (the Union), and eleven secessionist Southern states (the Confederate States of America). The war was the upshot of decades worth of political, social, and economic conflict between the agricultural South, which produced mainly cash crops such as cotton, tobacco, and sugarcane, and the industrial North. The South depended on its four million slaves for its social and economic livelihood, whereas the North despised slavery as immoral and illegal. Even before General Lee’s surrender in 1865, the federal government was confronted with an acute dilemma, how to reunite the country. First Lincoln, then Johnson, and lastly Congress, imposed their ideas of how best to restore the Union, that is to say properly execute the task of Reconstruction. Reconstruction was initiated by incumbant President Abraham Lincoln before the war ended. On December 8, 1963, Lincoln revealed his rather extremely lenient Reconstruction plan. He proposed to grant a pardon to any confederate (excluding high-ranking officials), who would swear their allegence to the Union and accept the end of slavery. If ten percent of the 1860 voting population had taken the oath, that state would hold a constitutional convention. If the delegates had written a state constitution endorsing the 13th Amendment, that state could be re-admitted to the Union. Andrew Johnson, President Lincoln’s Vice President, and successor after his assasination in April of 1865, unveiled his own Reconstruction plan on May 29 of the same year. Johnson’s plan, which closely resembled Lincoln’s, said the President would appoint a governor to each state (after ten percent of the 1860 population took the oath Lincoln had prescribed in 1863), who would convene a constitutional convention. At this convention, the state had to write a new constitution, void secession, abolish slavery, ratify the 13th Amendment, and stop the payment of war debts. If given a pardon by the President, former Confederate officers and persons owning land worth over $20,000, could vote. Johnson felt that under his plan, Reconstruction would take a few months; in fact, the belief that his plan was too lenient towards the South –he granted 13,000 pardo... ...to restore Southern society to antebellum status (as demonstrated by his vetos of the Freedmen’s Bureau, and of the Civil Rights Bill); and as a result, replenish the ruined Southern economy. Congressional Reconstruction, brought on a complete social revolution in the south. The South had a military occupation on their hands, and due to their continual resistance to Reconstruction allowed for the passing of seven separate legislations, aimed at changing their way of life. Politically, blacks had significant potential with the right to vote, especially in Mississippi, South Carolina, and Louisiana, where they were the majority of the population. Blacks managed to gain seventeen seats in Congress (two were in the Senate), and an equivalent number of state offices. Had the South agreed to Lincoln’s terms, or even Johnson’s, they would have been able to continue politically, socially and economically just as they had before the war. Unfortunately for the South, their pride and ignorance, caused them to unknowingly choose the greater of three evils. Although Reconstruction ultimately failed, it would have attained optimal results had the South accepted Lincolnâ⠂¬â„¢s Reconstruction Plan.

Business Forecasting Assignment Operations Essay

Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the knowledge gained to project future business conditions so that decisions can be made today that will aid in the achievement of established goals. Forecasting plays a crucial role in today’s uncertain global marketplace. Forecasting is traditionally either qualitative or quantitative, with each offering specific advantages and disadvantages. Qualitative and Quantitative Forecasting TechniquesForecasting can be classified into qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative techniques are subjective or judgmental and are based on estimates and opinions. The Delphi technique, a common form of qualitative forecasting, allows experts to create an effective forecast under conditions of extreme uncertainty. Time’s series forecasting, a quantitative technique, uses a statistical analysis of past sales in order to effectively predict future outcomes, but can be limited under conditions of uncertainty (Chase, 2003, p.364). Business forecasting can be used in a wide variety of contexts, and by a wide variety of businesses. For example, effective forecasting can determine sales based on attendance at a trade show, or the customer demand for products and services (Business and Economic Forecasting, p.1). One of the most important assumptions of business forecasters is that the past acts as an important guide for the future. It is important to note that forecasters must consider a number of new information, including rapidly changing economic conditions and globalization, when creating business forecasts based on past sales. Globalization and economic slowdown has made businesses subject to a great deal of uncertainty. In this time of rapid change, economies worldwide change rapidly, new markets open up and old ones change, and demand for products is often uncertain. As such, businesses must be flexible and adaptable in the types of methods that they use to forecast future sales (Chase, 2003, p.472). In an ever-changing global marketplace, organizations are constantly coming up against unusual and novel situations. It is in these situations that modern methods of business forecasting can be especially useful. Modern  forecasting methods are usually grouped into two main categories: qualitative methods, and quantitative methods. Qualitative analysis includes the intuitive and knowledge-based approach as discussed earlier. The decision maker reviews all of the information available, and then makes an estimated forecast. Quantitative techniques are used mostly when qualitative information is not available. In contrast, qualitative techniques are based on an analysis of data (Namvar, 2000, p.8). Delphi Forecasting MethodQualitative forecasting techniques are: executive committee, the Delphi method, and surveys of the sales force, surveys of customers, historical analogy, and market research. The objective of most Delphi applications is the reliable and creative exploration of ideas or the production of suitable information for decision-making. The Delphi Method is based on a structured process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts by means of a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback (Chase, 2003, P471). The Delphi method is a variation of the executive committee approach. But the interaction is indirect, iterative and structured. The basic premise of Delphi method is to identify a group of experts and each of them are given a set of questions or issues, and asked to respond. After a given amount of time, the responses are sent to a coordinator or monitoring group that does not participate in the earlier stages of the Delphi processes. This group then feeds back the responses to other members of the group, while never giving away the identity of the response. The experts are then asked to respond again, after reviewing the responses of other respondents. This process may continue until a consensus is reached among the group. The group may be united to form a final consensus (Namvar, 2000, p.8). Time Series Forecasting MethodTime series techniques are the most popular quantitative method. These techniques use statistical methods for projecting from historical data. Quantitative techniques are preferred when appropriate data are available. The main assumption is that the historical pattern will continue into the future. The two main types of time series forecasting are average smoothing and exponential smoothing. The moving average is simply a  series of arithmetic averages. Predicting sales for next year is simple. The actual sales for a certain number of years is added, and then divided by the number of years used to get the moving average. A weighted moving average is obtained by assigning a specific weight to previous years. The sum of all weights must equal one. Recent years are given a higher weight (Namvar, 2000, p.13). Exponential smoothing is simply a subtype of the weighted moving average. A new forecast is a weighted sum of actual variables (usually sales) in the current year and the weighted forecast of the variable for that period. It has the advantage of being relatively easy to compute. In contrast the moving average method is quick, cheap, and easy to use, but does not easily take into account variations based on seasonal effects and cycles (Namvar, 2000, p.14). Both the Delphi technique and Time series forecasting are valuable forecasting tools in the right circumstance. The Delphi technique is useful for short-term forecasts. This ability is contingent upon the familiarity of experts with specific issues (Namvar, 2000, p.8). One of the major problems with the Delphi technique, as with all other qualitative techniques, is identifying good employees to form expert opinions and judgments, and then getting these experts to agree on a forecast (Namvar, 2000, p.9). Given the limitations of qualitative techniques, quantitative forecasting is usually preferred where there is enough past data (Namvar, 2000, p.12). In conditions of uncertainty, the Delphi technique offers a great deal flexibility. Using the Delphi technique, experts in a field can often come to a creative and insightful consensus. In contrast, time series forecasting may be less useful under conditions of extreme uncertainty because of its qualitative nature. When new conditions arise, it may be difficult to predict future sales based on past sales when conditions were more certain. Therefore, the Delphi technique is often a more valuable tool for business forecasting during conditions of uncertainty. Firstlogic Inc., The Company manufactures information quality and postal automation software that helps companies ensure the data they are storing and adding to their corporate databases is clean, accurate and reliable. More than 6,000 customers around the world use Firstlogic products. (www.firstlogic.com). The recent global economic slowdown and increased uncertainty in many facets of business, have caused organizations to rethink their priorities and strategies. Like any other companies, My company was forced to look well ahead in order to plan their investments, launch new products and services, devise new ways to develop and leverage human capital and so on. All key decisions related to these activities are derived from a sales forecast, which is the most critical and difficult area of the management. Forecasting can allow businesses to predict sales, and thus determine a wide variety of business expenses. Firstlogic heavily relies on quantitative methods for business forecasting based on several factors like degree of accuracy, investment decisions, time horizon to forecast, capital investment decision, product changes, style, quality, price changes, labor problems, available data and information and position of products in its life cycle to forecast the future sales. Firstlogic use information on past sales and times to help determine demand for products and services, effectively forecasting the specific products/services that would release to market at a given point in time. Despite the effectiveness of quantitative forecasting tools, the company has had less success with these methods in short term forecasts. Given the high degree of uncertainty in today’s marketplace, qualitative forecasting techniques like the Delphi technique may help Firstlogic to better-forecast future sales. Conclusion In conclusion, business forecasting methods must be used in order to fit current conditions of uncertainty. Delphi technique and time series forecasting both are valuable forecasting tools when used in the right circumstance. The Delphi technique is useful for short-term forecasts; therefore, it is often a more valuable tool for business forecasting during conditions of uncertainty. References Business and Economic Forecasting. Retrieved November 4, 2005, fromhttp://www.sbeusers.csuhayward.edu/~acassuto/econ3551/summary/chapter6.ht

Merovingian Frankish Queens 5th and 6th Centuries

The Merovingian dynasty in Gaul or France was prominent in the 5th and 6th centuries, as the Roman Empire was losing its force and power. Several of the queens are remembered in history: as regents, as persuaders of their husbands and in other roles. Their husbands, many of whom did not limit themselves to just one wife at a time, were often at war with their own brothers and half-brothers. The Merovingians ruled until 751 when the Carolingians displaced them. For those whose lives are better documented (none of the stories comes to us as unambiguously objective history), Ive linked to more detailed biographies. A major source for the history of these women is the History of the Franks by Gregory of Tours, a bishop who lived at the same time and interacted with some of the individuals listed here. Bedes Ecclesiastic History of the English People is another source for some of the history. Basina of Thuringiaabout 438 - 477Queen Consort of Childeric IMother of Clovis I Basina of Thuringia is reported to have left her first husband, and, in Gaul, to have herself proposed marriage to the Frankish king Childeric. She was the mother of Clovis I, giving him the name Chlodovech (Clovis is the Latin form of his name). Their daughter Audofleda married the Ostrogoth king, Theodoric the Great. Audofledas daughter was Amalasuntha, who ruled as Queen of the Ostrogoths. Saint Clotildeabout 470 - June 3, 545Queen Consort of Clovis IMother of Chlodomer of Orlà ©an, Childebert I of Paris, Clothar I of Soissons, and a daughter, also named Clotilde; stepmother of Theuderic I of Metz Clotilde convinced her husband to convert to Roman Catholicism, aligning France with Rome. It was under Clovis I that the first version of Salic Law was written, listing crimes and the punishment for those crimes. The term Salic Law has later become shorthand for the legal rule that women may not inherit titles, offices and land. Ingund of Thuringiaabout 499 - ?Queen Consort of Clothar (Clotaire or Lothair) I of Soissonssister of Aregund, another wife of Clothardaughter of Baderic of Thuringiamother of Charibert I of Paris, Guntram of Burgundy, Sigebert I of Austrasia, and a daughter, Chlothsind We know little about Ingund other than her family connections. Aregund of Thuringiaabout 500 - 561Queen Consort of Clothar (Clotaire or Lothair) I of Soissonssister of Ingund, another wife of Clothardaughter of Baderic of Thuringiamother of Chilperic I of Soissons We would know as little about Aregund as about her sister (above), except that in 1959, her sepulchre was discovered; some clothing and jewelry that was well preserved there served to identify her to the satisfaction of some scholars. Others dispute the identification, and believe the sepulchre of later date. A 2006 DNA test on a sample of the remains of the woman in the sepulchre, presumably Aregund, found no Middle Eastern heritage. This test was inspired by the theory made popular in The DaVinci Code and earlier in Holy Blood, Holy Grail, that the Merovingian royal family was descended from Jesus. However, Aregund married into the Merovingian royal family, so the results didnt really disprove the thesis. Radegundabout 518/520 - August 13, 586/7Queen Consort of Clothar (Clotaire or Lothair) I of SoissonsTaken as war booty, she was not Clothars only wife (monogamy not yet being the standard among the Franks). She left her husband and founded a convent. More Wives of Clothar I Other wives or consorts of Clothar were Guntheuc (a widow of Clothars brother Chlodomer), Chunsine and Waldrada (he may have repudiated her). Audovera? - about 580Queen Consort of Chilperic I, son of Clothar I and AregundMother of a daughter, Basina, and three sons: Merovech, Theudebert and Clovis Fredegund (below) had Audovera and one of Audoveras sons, Clovis, killed, in 580. Audoveras daughter Basina (below) was sent to a convent in 580. Another son, Theudebert, died in 575 in a battle. Her son Merovech married Brunhilde (below), after Sigebert I died; he died in 578. Galswinthaabout 540 - 568Queen Consort of Chilperic I, son of Clothar I and Aregund Galswintha was Chilperics second wife. Her sister was Brunhilde (below), married to Chilperics half-brother Sigebert. Her death within a few years is usually attributed to her husbands mistress Fredegund (below). Fredegundabout 550 - 597Queen Consort of Chilperic I, son of Clothar I and AregundMother and regent of Chlotar (Lothair) II Fredegund was a servant who became Chilperics mistress; her part in engineering the murder of his second wife Galswintha (see above) began a long war. She is considered, as well, responsible for the death of Chilperics first wife, Audovera (see above), and her son by Chilperic, Clovis. Brunhildeabout 545 - 613Queen Consort of Sigebert I of Austrasia, who was a son of Clothar I and IngundMother and regent of Childebert II and a daughter Ingund, grandmother of Theodoric II and Theodebert II, great-grandmother of Sigebert II Brunhildes sister, Galswintha (above), was married to Sigeberts half-brother Chilperic. When Galswintha was murdered by Fredegund (above), Brunhilde urged her husband to wage war for revenge against Fredegunde and her family. Clotildedates unknowndaughter of Charibert of Paris, who was another son of Clothar I of Soissons and Ingund, and of one of Chariberts four wives, Marcovefa Clotilde, who was a nun at the Convent of the Holy Cross founded by Radegund (above), was part of a rebellion. After that conflict was resolved, she did not return to the convent. Bertha539 - about 612Daughter of Charibert I of Paris and  Ingoberga, one of Charibert’s four consortsSister of  Clotilde, a nun, part of a conflict at the Convent of the Holy Cross with their cousin BasinaQueen consort of Aethelberht of Kent She is credited with bringing Christianity to the Anglo-Saxons. Bertha, daughter of the king of Paris, was married to Aethelberht of Kent, an Anglo-Saxon king, probably before he became king in about 558.   She was a Christian and he was not, and part of the marriage agreement was that she would be permitted her religion. She restored a church in Canterbury and it served as her private chapel.   In 596 or 597, Pope Gregory I sent a monk, Augustine, to convert the English. He became known as Augustine of Canterbury, and Bertha’s support was likely important in Aethelberht’s support of Augustine’s mission. We know that Pope Gregory wrote to Bertha in 601. Aethelberht himself eventually converted, and was baptized by Augustine, thus becoming the first Anglo-Saxon king to convert to Christianity. Basinaabout 573 - ?daughter of Audovera (above) and Chilperic I, who was the son of Clothar I of Souissons and Aregund (above) Basina was sent to the Convent of the Holy Cross, founded by Radegund (above) after Basina survived an epidemic that killed two of ther brothers, and after Basinas stepmother had Basinas mother and surviving brother killed. She later took part in a rebellion at the convent.